1. Phenomenon and Commercial Essence

Zhu Xiaohu, partner at Jinsha River Venture Capital, explicitly states: AI in 2025 is in the "narrative val uation" stage, transitioning to "fundamental valuation" in 2026, with RO I as the core metric. Translated into business language: Previously, saying "we're doing AI" was enough to secure funding. Starting next year, you must clearly articulate " for every 100 yuan invested in AI, how many yuan does it return, and in how many days does it break even?" This is not merely a shift in investment circle rules—it directly impacts your suppliers, competitors, and even the talent market's valuation logic.

2. Dimensional Analogy: Replay of the Internet Bubble Burst

Around 2000, internet companies sustained astronomical valuations through "user numbers" and "traffic narratives. " After the Nasdaq crash, investors focused on one metric: Does this company's revenue divided by costs exceed 1? Amazon survived because it had real warehouse turnover and logistics unit economics. Hundreds of " storytelling" companies disappeared.

Today's AI track is experiencing the same narrative. The difference: this bubble burst cycle moves faster—from narrative to fundamentals, Zhu Xiaohu gives a 12-month window. The previous internet consolidation took 3 years; this time may only allow 1 year.

3. Industry Consolidation and Endgame Projection

Following Grove's "strategic infl ection point" framework, when capital evaluation standards undergo fundamental transformation, the entire industry's survival curve redraws:

  • Death Zone: AI application teams with only demos and no paying customers; companies repackaging traditional SaaS with AI concepts—financing windows will close in H1 2026.
  • Danger Zone: AI service providers with revenue but gross margins below 40%—investors will question "can unit costs decrease at scale?"
  • Survival Zone: Early -stage teams that have validated ROI loops in vertical industries ( manufacturing, healthcare, energy)—receiving priority investment with reduced competition.
  • Opportunity Zone: Cross-sector tracks with deep AI integration in life sciences and new energy—next narrative funding targets, but entry barriers for executives are extremely high.

For traditional business owners, the real threat is: competitors in your industry who have validated ROI will secure new funding rounds to undercut prices and capture your customers.

4. Two Paths for Business Leaders

Path A—Become an "ROI Validator ": Select your company's most critical pain point (customer service, warehouse sorting, quot ation calculation) and conduct a 90-day AI pilot. Calculate real data showing "labor hours saved, error rate reduction, and R MB equivalent." This data serves as both internal management basis and future negotiation leverage.

Path B —Await the M&A Window: When numerous "narrative-driven" AI companies see valuations collapse, 2026-2027 will present a window for acquiring quality AI capabilities at reasonable prices. Preserve cash flow and wait to acquire market-validated AI tools or teams at rational prices rather than overpaying for trial-and-error today.